Agent-Based Modeling Simulation of Social Adaptation and Long-Term Change in Inner Asia

Abstract

We present a new international project to develop temporally and spa- tially calibrated agent-based models of the rise and fall of polities in Inner Asia (Central Eurasia) in the past 5,000 years. Gaps in theory, data, and computational models for explaining long-term sociopolitical change—both growth and decay— motivate this project. We expect three contributions: (1) new theoretically- grounded simulation models validated and calibrated by the best available data; (2) a new long-term cross-cultural database with several data sets; and (3) new conceptual, theoretical, and methodological contributions for understanding social complexity and long-term change and adaptation in real and artificial societies. Our theoretical framework is based on explaining sociopolitical evolution by the process of “canonical variation”.