Bright Prospects for Arctic Sea Ice Prediction on Subseasonal Time Scales

Abstract

With retreating sea ice and increasing human activities in the Arctic come a growing need for reliable sea ice forecasts up to months ahead. We exploit the subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction database and provide the first thorough assessment of the skill of operational forecast systems in predicting the location of the Arctic sea ice edge on these time scales. We find large differences in skill between the systems, with some showing a lack of predictive skill even at short weather time scales and the best producing skillful forecasts more than 1.5 months ahead. This highlights that the area of subseasonal prediction in the Arctic is in an early stage but also that the prospects are bright, especially for late summer forecasts. To fully exploit this potential, it is argued that it will be imperative to reduce systematic model errors and develop advanced data assimilation capacity.