Development and Evaluation of an Air Quality Model for Predicting the Impacts of Prescribed Burns

Abstract

A modeling system has been developed to predict accurately the downwind air quality impacts of prescribed burns. The system has been evaluated in applications to monitored burns and a long-range smoke event detected by the regional PM2.5 monitoring network in Southeastern USA. Uncertainties in the estimation of emissions have been identified and sensitivities of predicted PM2.5 levels to smoke injection height versus PBL height, and wind speed and direction have been quantified. More accurate wind predictions, currently provided by WRF, would significantly improve the performance of the modeling system. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014.