A near-real-time analysis of societal responses to Ukrainian refugee migration in Europe

Abstract

Recent events in Ukraine led to a surge in refugee migration originating from within Europe not seen since WWII. Using global data on daily news coverage, this research highlights that during the 8 weeks before the outbreak of open hostilities, there was no change in the relative interaction frequency between societal stakeholders and refugees. This changed dramatically in the 8 weeks thereafter: In neighbouring countries, the share of news reporting interactions with refugees rose from next to nothing to between 5 and 13%. In the rest of Europe, this share increased to 1% or 2%. Beyond governments, an event-study reveals inter-governmental organisations, civil societies and businesses as major societal forces driving not just the public discourse but levels of support for refugees. Initially, business actors displayed the strongest responsiveness to individuals in need: They became 25% points more likely to engage in material cooperation with refugees. Gradually fading support from non-government actors suggests that prolonged humanitarian crises may require a continuous near-real-time monitoring system and the coordination of various stakeholders' contributions to ensure an efficient provision of aid.