Spatiotemporal Variation of Net Primary Productivity and Its Response to Climate Change and Human Activities in the Yangtze River Delta, China

Abstract

Exploring the temporal and spatial changes, as well as driving factors, of net primary productivity (NPP) of terrestrial ecosystems is essential for maintaining regional carbon balance. This work focuses on the spatiotemporal variation and future trends of NPP and the response mechanisms of NPP to various driving factors. The Theil–Sen estimator, as well as Mann–Kendall and Hurst exponent methods, were used to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics and future trends of NPP, and geographical detectors and correlation analysis were used to reveal the response of NPP to various driver changes to environmental factors. The results showed that the NPP was generally on an increasing trend in the Yangtze River Delta region from 2000 to 2019, with the average NPP value of 550.17 g C m−2 a−1, of which 85.90% was the increasing regions and 14.10% was the decreasing regions, showing a significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity characteristic. The trend of future changes in NPP is dominated by an anti-persistence trend in the study area, i.e., the opposite of the past trend. Notably, annual precipitation is the most significant positive driver of NPP; while NPP was negatively correlated with population, meanwhile, different land use/land cover (LULC) also significantly affected the spatial distribution of NPP. Besides, there was a two-factor enhanced interaction between the various drivers on NPP, with the highest interaction occurring between temperature and elevation. Overall, this study provides data support for future regional NPP predictions and ecosystem evaluations.