Conceptual Model of Risk Versus Threat and Risk Management Versus Risk Reduction

Abstract

The concept of risk is defined differently across diverse disciplines, such as mathematics, law, engineering, business, and even art and religion (Althaus, 2005). Given that sexual offender risk assessment and treatment sits at the crossroads of several disciplines (e.g., criminology, psychology, semiology, law, public administration), it is not surprising that risk is discussed in a variety of ways. The differences are often subtle and implicit, yet meaningful because they are sources of confusion and obstacles to constructive discussions about how best to assess, treat, and manage risk. This chapter utilizes the epistemological traditions of mathematics, logic, psychology, and law to define risk as applied to sexual offender literature. In doing so, we will draw upon and refine previously specified models of risk, risk assessment, risk reduction, and risk management such as the Risk-Need-Responsively Principle, the Integrated Theory of Sexual Offending, the Dynamic Supervision Project, and Epperson and colleagues' Model of Risk and Threat. After clarifying and reconceptualizing concepts and terms that are used somewhat inconsistently, we discuss the implications of this restructuring of risk assessment arguing that an accurate understanding of risk and related concepts, coupled with accurate risk assessment, can lead to more carefully thought out and effective risk management and risk reduction efforts. Finally, using the newly specified model of risk in conjunction with recent research findings, we provide possible explanations for both reduced rates of observed sexual recidivism and predictive validity indices in many established risk assessment tools over the past decade. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved)