Assess the Sustainability of Public Debt in Iraq's Oil Economy (Autoregressive Distributed Lag Methodology)

Abstract

It led to the decline of oil revenues below levels normalized by the public budgets of the worsening fiscal deficits and levels of public debt in Iraq. The sustainability of public debt and the ability of the government to track the flow of public spending and meet its future financial obligations are dominated by most economic and financial studies given the importance of fiscal sustainability framework in the design, implementation and effectiveness of macroeconomic policies including fiscal policy in particular. This study attempts to monitor and analyze the public debt trajectory in the Iraqi economy through the discussion of modern approaches in assessing fiscal sustainability in resource-rich countries, the design of the standard model based on self-regression approach for periods of Distributed delay Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) to assess the sustainability of the public debt during the period (1980-2015). And out a set of procedural policies guaranteeing the continuity of government debt service (internal and external) and to achieve justice between generations and the rebuilding of the fiscal space that allows fiscal policy room for maneuver during periods of boom and bust oil.