Analytics of Risk and Challenge

Abstract

As emphasized several times in the previous chapter, CRT is about analyzing risk and designing deliberate challenges. Whether we are deliberately challenging the effectiveness of a strategic plan or the scalability of an optimization or big-data mining algorithm, the concept of a challenge has the same fundamental characteristics. The purpose of this chapter is to develop a disciplinary approach to structure and model the analysis of risk and the concept of a challenge. This structure can assist an automated system to risk assess and challenge a human or a computer autonomously, and to teach the concept of challenge in a disciplinary manner to humans. What is risk? How to analyze risk and how to “think” risk? What is a challenge? What do we mean by deliberate? How do we design and model the concept of a challenge deliberately? How do we systematically design a challenge on which both humans and computers to operate? This chapter will address these questions by establishing a unifying theory that defines and models systems, uncertainty, ability, skill, capacity, competency, performance, capability, and our ultimate aim, risk and challenge.