Pricing of risk and volatility dynamics on an emerging stock market: Evidence from both aggregate and disaggregate data

Abstract

This study analyses risk-return trade-off and behaviour of various volatility dynamics including: volatility, its persistence, mean reversion and speed of mean reversion along with asymmetry and leverage effect on the Pakistani stock market by employing aggregate (aggregate market level) and disaggregate (sectoral level) monthly data for the period from 1998 to 2012. Three generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models were applied: GARCH (1,1) for various volatility dynamics; EGARCH for asymmetric and leverage effect and GARCH-M for pricing of risk. The outcomes of the study are as follows: first, the volatility shocks are quite persistent but with varying degrees across the sectors. Both the ARCH effect (short-term effect) and GARCH effect (long-term effect) play their role in generating conditional future stock returns volatility. Further, overall the volatility process is mean reverting; however, the speed of mean reversion varies across the sectors. Secondly, the current study finds little evidence of asymmetry and leverage effect at both aggregate and disaggregates data. Thirdly, the pricing of risk (positive risk premium) is also evident, particularly at the disaggregate data in the Pakistani stock market. Finally, this research study sets the implications for both the policy makers and investors.