Spatio-temporal drought analysis in the Trakya region, Turkey

Abstract

Since droughts are natural phenomena, their occurrence cannot be predicted with certainty and thus it must be treated as a random variable. Once drought duration and magnitude have been found objectively, it is possible to plan for the transport of water in known quantities to drought-stricken areas either from alternative water resources or from water stored during wet periods. The summation of deficits over a particular period is referred to as the drought magnitude. Drought intensity is the ratio of drought magnitude to its duration. These drought properties at different truncation levels provide significant hydrological and hydrometeorological design quantities. In this study, the run analysis and z-score are used for determining drought properties of given hydrological series. In addition, kriging is used as a spatial drought analysis for mapping. This study is applied to precipitation records for Istanbul, Edirne, Tekirdaǧ and Kirklareli in the Trakya region, Turkey and then the drought period, magnitude and standardized precipitation index (SPI) values are presented to depict the relationships between drought duration and magnitude.