Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA-Box Jenkins) Pada Peramalan Komoditas Cabai Merah di Indonesia

Abstract

Chili is one of the main staples in making a dish and chili is one of the values in a commodity that has superior value, the price of chili often experiences price fluctuations or what is known as the price which is always changing. data taken from BPS (Central Bureau of Statistics) data nationally from January 2001 to December 2015 data, this study also aims to be able to predict national chili prices which will later be used in research, namely discussing the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method. In this study, the identification of the model was carried out using two tests, namely the stationarity test and the correlation test. The stationarity test is the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test, the Philips-Perron (PP) test and the Kwiatkowski-Philips-Schmidt-Shin (KPPS) test using Minitab 9.The chili commodity is a very important commodity in the Indonesian economy, because In terms of consumption, chilies have a very significant market share, which can be seen from data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) with an inflation weight value of 0.35%. From the research, it was found that for the selection of the best method, namely ARIMA (3,1,0) because it has the smallest MSE value and the forecasting results for the next 12 periods in January 2016 ranged from Rp. 11,868.2 to Rp. 28,315.5 and so on until December 2016.