Application of Predictive Models in Quantitative Risk Assessment and Risk Management

Abstract

Food-borne pathogens associated with food products are a major concern of both industries and governments; thus, design of proper risk mitigation and elimination strategies is required. Currently, the great development showed by the scientific method and the tendency to optimize processes through its systematization has led to the necessity to unify and standardize food safety management processes. With this, it is not intended to abandon the approach that has prevailed historically, based on consultations of experts and use of ‘default values’ (conservative control limits and measures which establish the guarantee of the safety of a process or food), but complete foundations to improve its result through a structured approach based on scientific facts. In this respect, the World Trade Organization (WTO) (The WTO agreement on the application of sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS Agreement), 1995), according to the agreements of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (SPS), proposes that to ensure fair and safe international trade, standards and harmonized food regulation need to be established, based on a scientific and rigorous approach, recommending for that the application of methods of risk assessment. Application of predictive models within a risk assessment framework is presented throughout this chapter.