Climate change and corn productivity in West Montérégie, Quebec: From impacts anticipation to some adaptation potentialities

Abstract

The decision-making environment of farmers in Quebec is very complex as in most agricultural territories. In their decision-making process, farmers must deal not only with a set of socio-economic factors at different spatial and temporal scales, but also with biophysical elements likely to have a significant influence on the level of agricultural productivity. Among these, climatic conditions are fundamental to the development, growth and yield of crops. In a context of climate change and variability mainly characterized by rising temperatures and more frequent extreme events, climate conditions will become increasingly important in any process of informed decision-making on the farm. From this perspective, the objective of this paper is twofold: (1) to present the potential impacts of climate change on corn yields for two municipalities in the West Montérégie region of the province of Quebec; and (2) in the light of analyses carried out on some phenological stages of corn, to focus on some adaptation options likely to reduce the impact of anticipated climate conditions on corn yields in both municipalities. To achieve these objectives, a methodological approach is adopted that combines five climate scenarios from the Canadian Regional Climate Model for the 2010-2039 horizon with the CERES-Maize crop model embedded in DSSAT. Compared to the 1961-1990 reference period and considering the cultivars currently used, the impacts of climate change vary from one municipality to another. Within the municipalities, they depend on the climate scenario considered and the fertilizing effect of carbon dioxide. However, in general terms, with the current cultivars, a yield decrease mainly due to an acceleration of the physiological maturity process has been anticipated for the future period under investigation. By considering some cultivars that are better adapted to the anticipated climatic conditions for the 2010-2039 period, corn yields are projected to increase for most climate scenarios in the two municipalities. If the modelling exercise of climate change impacts on corn yields has provided useful insights into the technical adjustments to be made in order to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on crop productivity in the West Montérégie region, it is nonetheless important to keep in mind that their adoption is not straightforward and is strongly linked to other types of stressors.