Infection spread simulation technology in a mixed state of multi variant viruses

Abstract

ATLM (Apparent Time Lag Model) was extended to simulate the spread of infection in a mixed state of the variant virus and original wild type. It is applied to the 4th wave of infection spread in Tokyo, and (1) the 4th wave bottoms out near the end of the state of emergency, and the number of infected people increases again. (2) The rate of increase will be mainly by d strain (L452R) virus, while the increase by a strain (N501Y) virus will be suppressed. (3) It is anticipated that the infection will spread during the Olympic Games. (4) When variant viruses compete, the infection of highly infectious virus rises sharply while the infection by weakly infectious ones has converged. (5) It is effective as an infection control measure to find an infected person early and shorten the period from infection to quarantine by PCR test or antigen test as a measure other than the vaccine.