Modelling the effects of weather and climate on malaria distributions in West Africa

Abstract

Background: Malaria is a leading cause of mortality worldwide. There is currently conflicting data and interpretation on how variability in climate factors affects the incidence of malaria. This study presents a hierarchical Bayesian modelling framework for the analysis of malaria versus climate factors in West Africa. Methods. The hierarchical Bayesian framework takes into account spatiotemporal dependencies, and in this paper is applied to annual malaria and climate data from ten West African countries (Benin, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Gambia, Ghana, Liberia, Mali, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo) during the period 1996-2006. Results: Results show a statistically significant correspondence between malaria rates and the climate variables considered. The two most important climate factors are found to be average annual temperature and total annual precipitation, and they show negative association with malaria incidence. Conclusions: This modelling framework provides a useful approach for studying the impact of climate variability on the spread of malaria and may help to resolve some conflicting interpretations in the literature. © 2014Arab et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.