Effectiveness of family policy in Russia: Evidence-based approach

Abstract

Family policy in Russia, is based on a “narrow” demographic interpretation that neglects policy effectiveness and impact of state support on fertility indicators. This gap can be addressed using the evidence-based approach, which embraces both the influence of public policies on fertility, and human capital. The paper discusses the theoretical underpinnings of policy based on the Becker-Barreau and Baldrin-Jones concepts. We show the importance of incorporating “Big Data” into family policy analysis to address the problem of data completeness and analytical information for family policy needs. We rely on A. Sagradov’s ideas about quantitative determination of population reproduction patterns with non-demographic processes, including institutional changes and transformation of economic mechanisms of family policy. We estimated the demographic result per unit of budget expenditures in Russia (based on empirical data from EMISS and the Federal Treasury for 86 regions from 2011 to 2021, with a breakdown by months). The “random forest” method is used to identify the key factors influencing the results of the machine learning model, and to demonstrate the significance of parameters for assessing the socio-economic effectiveness of family policy in Russia. The research findings indirectly confirm the pro-natalist nature of family policy in Russia, the effectiveness of which is ensured by economic mechanisms of direct cash payments to the population. The paper concludes with a discussion of the prospects for using an evidence-based approach to family policy in Russia.