Environmental Conflict and the Democratic Peace

Abstract

Resource scarcity, and in particular the struggle for territory, is a traditional source of conflict and war. After the end of the Cold War in particular, many have suggested that environmental degradation will exacerbate scarcities and become an additional source of armed conflict. This chapter argues that although the potential for environmental conflict needs to be taken seriously, the current wave of democratization leaves room for much greater optimism. Democracies rarely, if ever, fight one another and civil war is exceedingly unlikely in established democracies. These regularies are unlikely to be reversed even in the face of environmental degradation and resource competition. On the contrary, competition for resources between democracies frequently leads to increased cooperation. In addition, democracies are — everything else being equal — likely to have more enlightened environmental policies, so that the chance of serious environmental degradation in a democracy is less than in an autocracy. This further decreases the probability that democracies will become embroiled in violent conflict internally or externally as a result of environmental degradation.