Potential impact of increased alcohol taxes on the alcohol-attributable burden of disease in Germany: a modelling study

Abstract

Background: In 2019, Germany was among the countries with the highest alcohol per capita consumption in the world, which contributes significantly to the burden of disease. Aim: In this modelling study, we estimate how many alcohol-attributable diseases and deaths in Germany could have been avoided in 2019 if current alcohol excise taxes were increased by 20%, 50%, and 100%. Methods: The starting point for the modelling was the national beverage-specific alcohol taxes. Three scenarios were modelled under the assumption that the resulting tax increase would be fully transferred to the retail prices. Beverage-specific price elasticities were used. Based on the estimated resulting decline in annual per capita consumption and the disease-specific risk functions, we modelled the avoidable incidence and mortality for alcohol-attributable diseases for 2019. Alcohol-attributable diseases of the cardiovascular and digestive systems, alcohol dependence, epilepsy, and infectious diseases as well as injuries and accidents were considered. Results: Overall, doubling the beverage-specific alcohol taxes could have avoided up to 200,400 alcohol-attributable cases of disease and injury as well as 2800 deaths in Germany in 2019. This corresponds to just under 7% of the modelled new alcohol-attributable cases of disease and death in Germany. Discussion: Alcohol-attributable diseases and injuries are preventable and an increase in the alcohol taxes could substantially reduce the alcohol-attributable burden of disease in Germany.