Background: In Japan, a shortage of physicians, who serve a key role in healthcare provision, has been pointed out as a major medical issue. The healthcare workforce policy planner should consider future dynamic changes in physician numbers. The purpose of this study was to propose a physician supply forecasting methodology by applying system dynamics modeling to estimate future absolute and relative numbers of physicians.Method: We constructed a forecasting model using a system dynamics approach. Forecasting the number of physician was performed for all clinical physician and OB/GYN specialists. Moreover, we conducted evaluation of sufficiency for the number of physicians and sensitivity analysis.Result & conclusion: As a result, it was forecast that the number of physicians would increase during 2008-2030 and the shortage would resolve at 2026 for all clinical physicians. However, the shortage would not resolve for the period covered. This suggests a need for measures for reconsidering the allocation system of new entry physicians to resolve maldistribution between medical departments, in addition, for increasing the overall number of clinical physicians. © 2013 Ishikawa et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.
CITATION STYLE
Ishikawa, T., Ohba, H., Yokooka, Y., Nakamura, K., & Ogasawara, K. (2013). Forecasting the absolute and relative shortage of physicians in Japan using a system dynamics model approach. Human Resources for Health, 11(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/1478-4491-11-41
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