System dynamics simulation of regional water resources sustainable utilization: A case of Hubei Province, China

Abstract

A system dynamic (SD) model of water resources sustainable utilization in Hubei province, China, was constructed based on water resources-ecology-economy compound system theory and system dynamics. The whole sustainable utilization system of regional water resources was divided into five subsystems, including society subsystem, industry subsystem, agriculture subsystem, ecology subsystem and water resource subsystem, relations between drivers and impacts and dynamic feedback mechanisms of each subsystem and the whole system were analyzed, and then the flowchart of the model was established. Four types of water resource regulation modes were considered in this model, i.e. natural evolving mode, saving-protection mode, industrial development mode and sustainable utilization mode, and under each mode, quantitative scenario analysis was carried out in 2010, 2015 and 2020 respectively. The results show that the sustainable development mode is the most efficient one under which the regional economy in Hubei will keep developing rapidly without excessive consumptions of water resources and the water carrying capability will be enhanced continuously to some extend with the economic development. © 2012 Springer-Verlag GmbH.