A coupled technological-sociological model for national electrical energy supply systems including sustainability

Abstract

Global trends in the development and use of electricity utilities and assets are practically irreversible. In industrialized nations, capacity factors have grown so large that users may expect freely available electrical potential energy at all times and in almost all locations. Economically capitalizing on this trend means maximizing energy provision and use to boost gross domestic product growth rates. Electricity is now a basic indicator of social development; it is to the cultural-technological dimension what breathing air is to the physiological-biological dimension, the implication being that sustainable development of provision systems has become a matter of international concern. This article presents a decision basis for the design of sustainable national electrical energy supply systems, incorporating country-specific boundary conditions in the form of user requirements to be specified by users. The basis is a solution space of technologically possible systems, obtained by combining generalized user requirements and physical limitations to generate the solution states. As all technological options for the system are brought under consideration, this approach represents a comprehensive comparative analysis. The decision process ensues by assigning to each solution state a set of (newly defined) system risk factors. Particular consideration is given to evaluating the system's ability to meet the user requirements, i.e., interruption-free provision. The central benchmark is the technological-economic availability. From this is obtained a sustainability boundary, the boundary between quantifiable and unquantifiable economic loss potentials. This article deliberately avoids referencing specific technological solutions, with the justification that the basis of the user's decision should be independent of technological considerations. The sole exception is a reference to the currently used technology, which forms the starting point.