Covid-19 and Economics Forecasting on Advanced and Emerging Countries

Abstract

Objective: To estimate the size and the dynamics of the coronavirus (covid-19) pandemic in Advanced, Emerging, and Developing Economies, and to determine its implications for economic growth. Methodology: A susceptible Infected Recovered (sir) model is implemented, we calculate the size of the pandemic through numerical integration and phase diagrams for covid-19 trajectory; finally, we use ensemble models (random forest) to forecast economic growth. Results: We confirm that there are differences in pandemic spread and size among countries; likewise, the trajectories show a long-term spiral cycle. Economic recovery is expected to be slow and gradual for most of the economies. Limitations: All countries differ in covid-19 test applications, which could lead to inaccurate total confirmed cases and an imprecise estimate of the pandemic’s spread and size. In addition, there is a lack of leading indicators in some countries, generating a higher mse of some machine learning models. Originality: To implement economic-epidemiological models to analyze the evolution and virus’ spreading throughout time. Conclusions: It is found the pandemic’s final size to be between 74-77%. Likewise, it is demonstrated that covid-19 is endemic, with a constant prevalence of 9 years on average. The spread of the pandemic has caused countries to self-induce in an unprecedented recession with a slow recovery.