Conservation planning in a changing climate: Assessing the impacts of potential range shifts on a reserve network

Abstract

As climates change over the coming century, many species will-experience range shifts. Some species that currently inhabit protected areas will move out of those areas and others will move in. Drawing on model projections from previous studies, we assessed potential changes in the representation of trees, birds,-mammals, and amphibians in the protected areas of the Northern Appalachian/Acadian ecoregion of North America. Six of 17 tree species were projected to-experience a reduction in the areas suitable for growth in the region's protected areas and 11 of the 17 were projected to gain representation. Seven of 14 bird species were projected to experience losses in representation of their suitable habitat and the other seven were projected to experience gains. Range-shift projections for mammals and amphibians indicated that the protected areas would likely experience 13% and 21% turnover in these species, respectively with roughly half of the species-experiencing losses of suitable habitat in the reserves and half-experiencing gains. Despite these potential changes, protected areas are still likely to be one of the best tools for protecting biodiversity in a changing climate. One of the major challenges for the coming decades will be to provide the connectivity that will facilitate movement out of, and into, protected areas. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.