The educational differential in fertility in transitional China: Temporal and regional variation

Abstract

BACKGROUND Education expansion has contributed significantly to fertility decline during the worldwide fertility transition. Yet, it is less clear whether the educational gradient in fertility remains stable and persists in the post-transition era. In light of the rapid education expansion in many low-fertility countries, the education-fertility nexus becomes increasingly relevant to demographic and socioeconomic prospects. OBJECTIVE In this study we investigate the education-fertility relationship in China by focusing on its robustness in different socio-institutional contexts both during and after the demographic transition. METHODS We use the cohort parity progression ratios (PPRs) to unveil women's reproduction progress over the life course. The PPRs are estimated for each educational group, jointly classified by cohort, period, place of residence, and province, using China's census and mini-census data between 1982 and 2015. We fit multilevel models to investigate the education-fertility relationship and to explore its temporal and contextual variation. RESULTS We find strong empirical support for a negative association between women's education and each of the successive PPRs in China, both during and after the course of fertility transition. Nevertheless, the strength of the relationship changes over time, particularly for second and higher order births. The education-fertility link also varies profoundly by contextual features. CONTRIBUTION This study extends the literature by exploring the potential dynamics and structural variation of the education-fertility link from demographically transitional to posttransition China. The results provide a panoramic picture of fertility change in China, and insights that lead to a better understanding of world population prospects in the post-transition era.