The Will of the People? Effects of Politicians’ Subjective Claims about Public Opinion on Perceived Public Opinion and Evaluative Judgments

Abstract

Subjective claims about what the public thinks are the most common public opinion cue in the news media and are used especially by populist politicians as a communication strategy to appeal to voters. These references are not based on polling data and may even be in contrast to them. Yet, there is little research on how effective this communication strategy actually is. In the present study, we looked at the effects of politicians’ subjective claims to public opinion on the evaluation of the politicians and on people’s perception of public opinion. In addition, we tested whether this communication strategy resonates especially well with people holding populist attitudes. In a 2 × 4 experiment, we were able to show that the use of subjective claims strongly shaped public opinion perceptions but did not necessarily improve the evaluation of the politician. The effects occurred regardless of people’s populist attitudes.