Study on the driving factors and decoupling effect of carbon emission from pig farming in China—based on LMDI and Tapio model

Abstract

The livestock sector accounts for 18% of total anthropogenic carbon emissions and is an important source of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. China occupies a large proportion of total livestock carbon emissions worldwide, especially in the pig industry, which is significant to China's agricultural economy and also a key area for China to achieve the "Carbon peaking and Carbon neutrality goals." This study uses the life cycle approach to calculate the GHG emission status of China's pig farming industry from 2001 to 2020, and then, we establish a logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model to identify the main driving factors and a Tapio decoupling model to analyze its decoupling status. We decompose the emission sources as well as decoupling index into five drivers: technological progress, livestock structure, policy bias, affluence, and population. The results reveal that the carbon emission of China's pig industry is in a weak growth trend and overall in a weak decoupling state but has volatility, which is closely related to the "Pig Cycle" in China. Decomposition analysis shows that increasing affluence and population growth are the main drivers of GHG emissions; simultaneously, technological progress, livestock structure, and policy bias are the main drivers of emission reduction. Meanwhile, technological and policy factors positively contribute to the decoupling status, while affluence level, population, and livestock structure changes negatively inhibit the decoupling status. The study concludes that technological advances, optimized economic structures, the guidance of green consumption patterns, and the solution to the "Pig Cycle" problem are crucial to further reduce GHG emissions from China's pig industry; meanwhile, technological changes have a dominant role in promoting carbon decoupling in pig farming.