Assessing error bars in distribution load curve estimation

Abstract

Electrical distribution utilities have been dealing with the problem of estimation of distribution network load diagrams, either for operation studies or in forecasting models for planning purposes. Load curve assessment is essential for an efficient management of electric distribution systems. However, the only information available for most of the loads (namely LV loads) is related to monthly energy consumption. The general procedure uses measurements in consumers to construct inference engines that predict load curves using commercial information. This paper presents a new approach for this problem, based on Kohonen maps and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) to estimate load diagrams for the Portuguese distribution utilities. A method for estimating error bars is also proposed in order to provide a high order information about the performance of load curve estimation process. Performance attained is discussed as well as the method to achieve confidence intervals of the main predicted diagrams.