A rapid method for evaluating the variables affecting traffic flow in a touristic road, Iran

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to evaluate variables that influence traffic flow and its contribution to touristic transportation in a touristic road, Iran. The traffic flow data were extracted from the hour-by-hour data in 2018 from a local traffic control center in addition to three daily indices, including climatic comfort indicator, temperature inversion indicator, and temporal indicator of local calendar events, which were obtained from databases and equations. The data time series were arranged into diurnal, weekly, and monthly scales to apply in correlation tests. Results: Results revealed that a rate of 18–25% of total transportation (about 3,500,000–5,000,000 vehicles from total 19,828,619 vehicles) was assumed as a touristic portion of the traffic flow in the study area. The relationships between independent variables and traffic flow data exposed the effective and considerable role of the local climate on the traffic flow at above 98% of confidence level, without a strong association between calendar effect and traffic flow. Statistical results in all temporal cycles revealed the significant positive and negative effects of the local climatic comfort index and temperature inversion index on the traffic flow, respectively. Conclusions: The finding of this study described that the traffic flow and touristic transportation in the study area are more affected by the local climatic comfort and temperature inversion indices, but are less affected by the local calendar holidays and occasional vacations. Hence, the decision-makers in the study area sternly need a fundamental climatic calendar for management, tourism transportation, and traffic flow instead of the current local calendar.