Studying possible outcomes in a model of sexually transmitted virus (HPV) causing cervical cancer for Poland

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to supplement knowledge about the spread of sexually transmitted diseases through computer simulations. The model has aggregated the most important properties of HPV infections and development of cervical cancer in demographically changing Polish society. The main goal is the authoritative analysis of the potential epidemiological control strategies and their impact on situation in Poland in the future 25 years. Constructed model shows indication that vaccination with screening organized alongside would be effective measures against cervical cancer. It also alarms authorities that processes like aging of society and increase of sexual activity (which are taking place in Poland at the moment) could recall epidemic, if prevention would not act properly. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014.