The Behavioural Profiles of Energy Consumers: Comparison of the Decision Tree Method and the Logit Model

Abstract

The purpose of this study is to explore the behavioural profiles of energy consumers, i.e. households (1) which have considered installing renewable energy sources (RES) and (2) which want to become prosumers. The identification of the user profile is vital so as to gain knowledge about users of small-scale generators in order to provide them with a personalised offer. The findings from this study could be valuable for local authorities, energy utilities and producers of RES installations. The main determinants of the willingness to install RES among households were explored by means of the empirical analysis of data collected by a survey of 960 households in Lower Silesia, a south-western region of Poland, in November and December 2015. The research identified the correlation between the households’ willingness to install RES (to become prosumers) and (1) socio-economic variables, (2) pro-ecological and pro-efficient behaviour variables, and (3) attitudinal variables. The importance of the variables was verified by a logit model and by the decision tree method. The authors used both methods to determine the key features of energy consumers and to make predictions about whether they are inclined to invest in RES and to become energy prosumers. The results obtained from these two methods were compared.