A preoperative nomogram predicts prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: a multicenter retrospective study

Abstract

Background: Although criteria for liver transplantation, such as the Milan criteria and Hangzhou experiences, have become popular, criteria to guide adjuvant therapy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation are lacking. Methods: We collected data from all consecutive patients from 2012 to 2019 at three liver transplantation centers in China retrospectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to analyze preoperative parameters, such as demographic and clinical data. Using data obtained in our center, calibration curves and the concordance Harrell’s C-indices were used to establish the final model. The validation cohort comprised the patients from the other centers. Results: Data from 233 patients were used to construct the nomogram. The validation cohort comprised 36 patients. Independent predictors of overall survival (OS) were identified as HbeAg positive (P = 0.044), blood-type compatibility unmatched (P = 0.034), liver transplantation criteria (P = 0.003), and high MELD score (P = 0.037). For the validation cohort, to predict OS, the C-index of the nomogram was 0.874. Based on the model, patients could be assigned into low-risk (≥ 50%), intermediate-risk (30–50%), and high-risk (≤ 30%) groups to guide adjuvant therapy after surgery and to facilitate personalized management. Conclusions: The OS in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation could be accurately predicted using the developed nomogram.