An Analysis of the 2002 Presidential Elections Using Logistic Regression

Abstract

The 2002 elections were a watershed in Brazilian electoral history. Three aspects of the process in particular have been amply stressed in several analyses. The first is the symbolic dimension of Lula's personal victory, the biography of a man of the people who rises to the country's most important office. The second is the victory of PT, the main leftwing party in the country, winning federal office 22 years after being founded. The third is the dimension of the victory, with the president obtaining a resounding vote (61% of the valid votes), which surpassed that of any other Brazilian president since 1945. Despite this, the efforts made by political science to analyse the 2002 elections remain limited, in particular regarding the use of opinion poll results.