A study on unit commitment taking uncertainties in forecast of renewable energy outputs into consideration

Abstract

The rapid increase of photovoltaics causes serious problems in Kyushu area. Renewable energy output has fluctuation and it becomes more difficult to ensure reserves, so a risk of power suppression has been considered now. The forecast for PV power output is developed, by using multiple regression and lasso regression analysis. Uncertainties of renewable energy must be taken into consideration when modeling the power system. In this study, uncertainties are taken into consideration as stochastic unit commitment. In addition, it is shown that rescheduling of UC can adjust generation units schedule when forecast error is large.