Potential consequences for rising temperature trends in the Oti River Basin, West Africa

Abstract

Introduction: One of the ways that climate change manifest itself is through temperature changes. Though the Oti River basin has been grappling with drought incidents, there has been little or no emphasis on analyzing temperature fluctuations in the basin. This study aimed to analyze the mean annual and seasonal temperature for the observed (1981–2010) and future periods (2021–2050) over the Oti River basin. Methods: Historical data were obtained from meteorological stations and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (NASA POWER). Data quality assessment was conducted, and the NASA POWER temperature was validated against the stations' temperature. Ensemble of eight models acquired from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX–Africa) under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), were used for the future projection. The mean annual and seasonal temperatures were analyzed for 1981–2010 and 2021–2050 (under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios). The Modified Mann–Kendall test was used for trend analysis at 5% significant level. Results and discussion: In the near-future, temperature is anticipated to increase at the mean monthly scale in the ranges of +0.88°C in October to +2.65°C in January under the RCP4.5 scenario, while the RCP8.5 predicts increases between +2.71°C in July and +6.48°C in January. The annual mean temperature change for the entire basin is projected at +1.47°C (RCP4.5) and +4.2°C (RCP8.5). For the rainy season period, the RCP4.5 projects annual mean temperature changes in the ranges of −0.72°C and +1.52°C while the RCP8.5 predicts changes between +1.06°C and +4.45°C. Concerning the dry season period, the anticipated changes in the annual mean temperature under the RCP4.5 would range from −0.43°C to +2.78°C whereas that of RCP8.5 would be between +1.97°C and 7.25°C. The Modified Mann–Kendall test revealed significantly increasing trends for temperature projections in the basin under both the RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in the basin. The study provides significant contribution to the comprehension of temperature patterns in time and space which is necessary for the sustenance of rainfed agriculture and water resources within the basin.