Prediction of the number dengue hemorrhagic fever patients in district Jombang Regency using transfer function model approach

Abstract

Transfer function describes the values of future prediction from output series (Yt ) based on its past value and also based on one or more input series (Xt ) as the dependent variables. Single input transfer function model is a transfer function model that use one variable as input series (Xt ).Then, this single input transfer function model was applied to make the model and forecast the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) cases (Yt ) in Jombang based on rainfall (Xt ). From the model, it couldbe described that the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases in a month was affected by rainfall on that month, rainfall two month earlier, rainfall twelve month earlier, rainfall thirteen month earlier, the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases a month earlier, the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases twelve month earlier, the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases thirteen month earlier, and also residual value on that month. Based on the transfer function model result, it the number of dengue hemorrhagic fever cases in Jombang could be predicted for next 20 months. After comparing the prediction result and the actual data, we obtained that almost all the prediction results (75%) were valid.