Stroke icu patient mortality day prediction

Abstract

This article presents a study on development of methods for analysis of data reflecting the process of treatment of stroke inpatients to predict clinical outcomes at the emergency care unit. The aim of this work is to develop models for the creation of validated risk scales for early intravenous stroke with minimum number of parameters with maximum prognostic accuracy and possibility to calculate the time of “expected intravenous stroke mortality”. The study of experience in the development and use of medical information systems allows us to state the insufficient ability of existing models for adequate data analysis, weak formalization and lack of system approach in the collection of diagnostic data, insufficient personalization of diagnostic data on the factors determining early intravenous stroke mortality. In our study we divided patients into 3 subgroups according to the time of death - up to 1 day, 1 to 3 days, and 4 to 10 days. Early mortality in each subgroup was associated with a number of demographic, clinical, and instrumental-laboratory characteristics based on the interpretation of the results of calculating the significance of predictors of binary classification models by machine learning methods from the Scikit-Learn library. The target classes in training were “mortality rate of 1 day”, “mortality rate of 1–3 days”, “mortality rate from 4 days”. AUC ROC of trained models reached 91% for the method of random forest. The results of interpretation of decision trees and calculation of significance of predictors of built-in methods of random forest coincide that can prove to correctness of calculations.