A Systematic Inflammation-based Model in Advanced Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

Abstract

Emerging evidence revealed the critical role of systematic inflammation in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). In the present study, we reviewed the records of 279 patients with advanced PDAC. Among them, 147 cases were used as the training cohort and another 132 as the validation cohort. In the training cohort, distant metastasis, carbohydrate antigen 19-9 (CA19-9), Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), and lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio (LMR) were independent prognostic factors in Cox regression. A nomogram based on these factors was generated to predict median survival time and survival probabilities at 6, 12, and 18 months. The nomogram showed a better discriminatory ability than the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) TNM staging (C-index: 0.727 vs. 0.610). In the validation cohort, a nomogram composed of the same variables also showed a high discriminatory ability (C-index: 0.784). In the low-risk group with a nomogram total point (NTP) value of more than 175, patients receiving combination therapy showed better prognosis than those receiving monotherapy (P=0.015). In conclusion, the nomogram based on inflammatory biomarkers can serve as useful prognostic tool for advanced PDAC. In addition, patients with high NTP can greater benefit from combination chemotherapy than monotherapy.