Climate Variability, Temporal Migration, and Household Welfare among Agricultural Households in Tanzania

Abstract

Climate change has been one of the factors inducing people to migrate internally. As a result of climate change risks, the temporal migration strategy has been employed as an insurance strategy to cope with its impacts. This study analyses whether climate variability is a driving factor for temporal migration among agricultural households and whether such migration shields farmers from agricultural shocks. The study used three waves of the Tanzania National Panel Survey data and employed various descriptive and panel-data econometric techniques in the analyses. Results indicated that climate variability has no effect on overall agricultural production but has a significant effect on maize production, a staple food crop in Tanzania. Moreover, high market value from production was associated with a lower chance that climate variability forced a household member to migrate. In cases where climate change leads to temporal migration, the migrants may shield the household from large welfare losses by bringing back their earned income with new skills. More investments in adaptation to climate change can reduce temporal migration. This will facilitate retaining productive forces, thus boosting the rural economy where agriculture is commonly practiced.