Impact of demographic transition on household energy consumption: A case from China

Abstract

Understanding how aging population and low fertility affect household energy consumption is important for optimizing household energy consumption and reaching effective policies. This paper studies the impacts of demographic transition on household energy consumption based on panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2016. Child-age dependency rate (CDR) and old-age dependency rate (ODR) are selected to track the shifts in age structure. They are introduced into a STIRPAT model to measure their impacts on household energy consumption. Besides, 8 representative regions are additionally chosen and investigated to find some regional characteristics. The results show that current demographic transition to aging population expands household energy consumption. The aging population and low fertility cause additional challenges for energy saving and emission reduction. Household energy consumption in less developed areas is more likely to be affected by CDR and ODR. Regions with large population are also more easily influenced by demographic transitions especially CDR. This study emphases the effects of demographic elements on household energy consumption. It indicates that continuous optimization of household energy consumption structures should be based on population dynamics.