Evaluation of ecosystem service value based on land use scenarios: A case study of qianjiangyuan national park pilot

Abstract

Land use change is one of the main drivers to change of biodiversity and ecosystem services. It is important for decision-making of government to assess impacts of land use change on biodiversity and ecosystem service. The Qianjiangyuan National Park pilot (QNPP), located at the headwaters of the Qiangtang River, covers 252 km 2 , and it is also a National Key Ecological Function Zone. In this study, We designed four land use change scenarios in 2025 for QNPP, i.e., business as usual, strategic planning, ecological protection, and development. Furthermore, the change in ecosystem services and its value in QNPP were evaluated under four scenarios by In VEST (Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs) model and CLUE-S (Conversions of Land Use and its Effects at Small Regional Extent) model. The ecosystem services in this assessment include water yield, water conservation, carbon sequestration and oxygen release, soil conservation, environmental purification, and habitat quality. Our results show that: (1) the value of ecosystem services in core protected areas and ecological conservation areas accounts for 88.30% of total value of QNPP; (2) the value of ecosystem services of QNPP in the ecological protection scenario is the highest (12.917 billion RMB yuan), and ranks the second in the strategic planning scenario (12.692 billion RMB yuan); and (3) the water yield in the strategic planning scenario is superior to that in the ecological protection scenario, while other ecosystem services are inferior to that in the ecological protection scenario. Strategic planning scenario is an optimal land use strategy in 2025 since QNPP play a key role in providing water resources for the downstream.