Do offenders avoid offending near home? A systematic review of the buffer zone hypothesis

Abstract

Background: There is general agreement that the frequency of crime decreases with the distance from the offender's home. By way of exception to this distance decay pattern, the buffer zone hypothesis states that offenders avoid offending very close to home. The purpose of the present study was to assess the validity of this hypothesis. Methods: We conducted a systematic literature review of 4 bibliographic databases, in which we identified 108 studies on criminal distance decay, from which we selected 33 studies that include sufficient information to assess the existence of the buffer zone. Based on the full text of the research articles, we created a measure indicating whether the study supported or rejected the hypothesis and a measure summarizing the relative quality of the evidence as either weak-medium or strong. Results: Of the 33 studies, 22 rejected the buffer zone hypothesis and 11 supported it. Across the whole sample, the methodological rigor of the studies was limited, but unrelated to whether the buffer zone hypothesis was supported or rejected. Conclusions: Based on the available evidence the buffer zone hypothesis has gained limited support. We conclude by making recommendations on how to report data on the home-crime distance and suggesting a testing methodology for future research.