Regional Evapotranspiration Estimation by the Improved MOD16-sm Model and Its Application in Central China

Abstract

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of the hydrological cycle, but traditional monitoring approaches are always based on measurements, which cannot satisfy the requirements of research on a regional scale. Hence, ET estimation by remote sensing is essential. MOD16 is a remote-sensing model based on the P-M equation and has good applicability. However, it describes soil moisture indirectly by RH, etc., which may cause uncertainties in ET estimating, so this study attempts to utilize the NDWI as a supplement to soil moisture information and makes improvements on the MOD16 model (with the resultant new model being named MOD16-sm). Specific work includes two aspects: one is model verification through making comparisons between ET estimates and measurements, and the other is a model application effect test analyzing the spatiotemporal characteristics of ET and exploring how ET responds to climate and land-use changes. Model verification indicated that the accuracy of the improved MOD16-sm model increased, with a higher R2 of 0.71, a lower RMSE 0.9 mm, and a lower MAE 0.91 mm, and that the improved MOD16-sm model was convincing. The application effect test of the MOD16-sm model showed that the average relative change rate of annual ET was 1.7%, showing an upward trend, and areas with growth trends of ET also had high vegetation coverage. As for the impacts of climate and land-use changes on ET, ET was positively correlated with precipitation, whereas it had no relevant correlation with air temperature in most areas, and the ET of all land-use types displayed significant increasing trends resulting from climate change. The application effect test demonstrated that ET estimates by the improved MOD16-sm model were reasonable.