Predicting the effectiveness of interventions on population-level sodium reduction: A simulation modeling study

Abstract

Background and Aims: Interventions that significantly reduce dietary sodium intake are anticipated to decrease gastric cancer (GCa) burden. However, the optimal restriction strategies remain unknown at present. This study aims to understand where and to what extent policies modifying sodium consumption change the distribution of GCa burden, and the effects of potential salt reduction strategies in China. Methods: The synthetic population in this microscopic simulation study is close to reality. We incorporated estimates of dietary patterns and GCa risk into the model of excess salt consumption. These estimates and simulated population were obtained from the China Health and Nutrition Survey, Global Burden of Disease Project, and the sixth census of China's National Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Results: In the no intervention scenario, we estimated that disease burdens due to excess sodium intake would be at 472.9 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) nationally between 2010 and 2030 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 371.1–567.7). The GCa burden caused by high sodium is projected to have a disproportionate impact on the central and southern provinces of China (9.2 and 4.5 million DALYs, respectively). Implementing a cooking salt substitute strategy would be expected to avoid a larger portion of GCa burden (about 67.2%, 95% CrI: 66.8%–67.6%) than the salt-restriction spoon program (about 16.7%, 95% CrI: 16.1%–17.4%). Conclusion: Dietary salt reduction policy is very powerfully effective in reducing the GCa burden overall. It is expected that proposed salt substitutes are more effective than traditional salt-restriction spoons to avoid increased inequality.