Ethnic External Support and Rebel Group Splintering

Abstract

What leads some rebel groups to remain cohesive, while others fragment into multiple rebel groups? A growing literature examines the causes behind fragmented non-state actors and movements. Building on this work, this article examines the relationship between a rebel group and its external supporter and focuses on the extent of ethnic links between the two. It advances a novel argument for why rebel groups that receive external support from non-ethnic supporters are more likely to fragment. Using statistical analysis, I examine the relationship between ethnic and non-ethnic external support and fragmentation from 1975 to 2009. I find that an increasing percentage of co-ethnic external support is negatively associated with rebel group fragmentation. Examining variation in the relationship type that rebel groups and external supporters share provides us a fuller understanding of why some rebel groups remain cohesive and why others fragment.