COVID-19 situation at Chennai City – Forecasting for the better pandemic management

Abstract

Aim: The objective of this study was to investigate the current state of COVID-19 pandemic at Chennai city and understand the possible contributors to the highest number of confirmed and death cases. The secondary aim of the study is to forecast the confirmed cases for the forthcoming days for better planning and execution. Sample, Technique and Methods: For this study, we have used the data from March 9 to June 6 2020 (89 days). For forecasting the number of COVID-19 cases for Chennai, we have used FORECAST.ETS function in Microsoft Excel. Forecasting calcu-lated from June 7 to August 31 2020 (85 days). Data of Chennai city and Tamilnadu is used for the study. Results: From the forecasting analysis for Chennai city, by the end of August, the forecasted positive cases would be 121027. The percentage of confirmed cases from the total sample tested may go up to 12.6 by August 31, 2020. The forecasting of Tamil-nadu indicates that the majority contribution comes from Chennai city. By the end of August, the number of death cases would be 4565 in Chennai city. Conclusion: There are various initiatives from the government agencies to control, treat and prevent COVID-19 at Chennai city. However, the number of cases is rising in an uncontrolled manner. Strategical disease management is needed to control the situation better. Forecasting is one of the critical factors that play a vital role in the pandemic management. By using the strategical approaches, we can have better planning, execution and monitoring.