Prediction of mortality 1 year after hospital admission

Abstract

Objective: Hospital admission, especially for the elderly, can be a seminal event as many patients die within a year. This study reports the prediction of death within a year of admission to hospital of the Simple Clinical Score (SCS) and ECG dispersion mapping (ECG-DM). ECG-DM is a novel technique that analyzes low-amplitude ECG oscillations and reports them as the myocardial micro-alternation index (MMI). Methods: a convenient sample of 430 acutely ill medical patients (mean age 67.9±16.6 years) was followed up for 1 year after their last admission to hospital. Results: Seventy-four (16.3%) patients died within a year-all but seven had a SCS≥5 and 40% of those with an MMI 550% died. Only six of variables were found by logistic regression to be independent predictors of mortality (i.e. age, MMI, SCS, a discharge diagnosis of cancer, hemoglobin <11gm% and prior illness that required the patient to spend ≥50% of daytime in bed). The SCS and MMI plus age were comparable predictors of 1-year mortality: SCS≥12 predicted 1-year mortality with the highest odds (16.1, chi square 79.09, p < 0.0001) and a score of age plus MMI >104 had an odds ratio of 9.4 (chi square 73.50, p < 0.0001), identified 69% of deaths, and 43% of the 119 patients who exceeded this score were dead within a year. Conclusion: SCS and ECG-DM plus age are clinically useful for long-term prognostication. ECG-DM is inexpensive, only takes a few seconds to perform and requires no skill to interpret. © The Author 2012. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Association of Physicians. All rights reserved.