Bayesian Calibration of Blue Crab (Callinectes sapidus) Abundance Indices Based on Probability Surveys

Abstract

Abundance and standard error estimates in surveys of fishery resources typically employ classical design-based approaches, ignoring the influences of non-design factors such as varying catchability. We developed a Bayesian approach for estimating abundance and associated errors in a fishery survey by incorporating sampling and non-sampling variabilities. First, a zero-inflated spatial model was used to quantify variance components due to non-sampling factors; second, the model was used to calibrate the estimated abundance index and its variance using pseudo empirical likelihood. The approach was applied to a winter dredge survey conducted to estimate the abundance of blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) in the Chesapeake Bay. We explored the properties of the calibration estimators through a limited simulation study. The variance estimator calibrated on posterior sample performed well, and the mean estimator had comparable performance to design-based approach with slightly higher bias and lower (about 15% reduction) mean squared error. The results suggest that application of this approach can improve estimation of abundance indices using data from design-based fishery surveys.