Reconstruction of solar total irradiance since 1700 from the surface magnetic flux

Abstract

Context. Total solar irradiance changes by about 0.1% between solar activity maximum and minimum. Accurate measurements of this quantity are only available since 1978 and do not provide information on longer-term secular trends. Aims. In order to reliably evaluate the Sun's role in recent global climate change, longer time series are, however, needed. They can only be assessed with the help of suitable models. Methods. The total solar irradiance is reconstructed from the end of the Maunder minimum to the present based on variations of the surface distribution of the solar magnetic field. The latter is calculated from the historical record of the sunspot number using a simple but consistent physical model. Results. Our model successfully reproduces three independent data sets: total solar irradiance measurements available since 1978, total photospheric magnetic flux since 1974 and the open magnetic flux since 1868 empirically reconstructed using the geomagnetic aa-index. The model predicts an increase in the solar total irradiance since the Maunder minimum of 1.3-0.4+0.2 Wm-2. © ESO 2007.