Epidemic dynamics and thresholds in agent-based simulations under realistic resources and cost conditions

Abstract

Critical threshold is one of the most important epidemiological indicators of whether or not an epidemic outbreak has occurred. Recent studies have been overly focused on ways that the power-law connectivity distribution features of social networks affect epidemic dynamics and spreading situations. Two important factors have been overlooked as a result: resource limitations and transmission costs associated with face-to-face interactions and daily contact. Our two main findings are: (a) a significant critical threshold does exist when resources and costs are taken into consideration, and that threshold has a lower bound whenever contagion events occur in scalefree social networks; and (b) the spread of epidemics in scale-free social networks remains controllable as long as resources are properly restricted and consumed costs in the form of public health strategies are significantly increased. © 2008 IEEE.