Forecasting tourism demand for South Africa using a single equation causal approach

1Citations
Citations of this article
4Readers
Mendeley users who have this article in their library.
Get full text

Abstract

International tourist arrivals to South Africa have increased significantly over the past 15 years and the country is ranked amongst the top thirty most popular destinations. It is therefore surprising that little research is available on forecasting tourism demand in South Africa. This article aims to expand on forecasting intercontinental tourism demand for South Africa by using a single equation causal approach. Autoregressive Distributed Lag models, supplemented with an error correction term, are estimated for tourist arrivals from Asia, Australasia, Europe, North America, South America, and the United Kingdom. In-sample (ex post) forecasts were performed and the forecasting accuracy evaluated.

Cite

CITATION STYLE

APA

Louw, R., & Saayman, A. (2013). Forecasting tourism demand for South Africa using a single equation causal approach. In Quantitative Methods in Tourism Economics (Vol. 9783790828795, pp. 79–96). Physica-Verlag. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-7908-2879-5_5

Register to see more suggestions

Mendeley helps you to discover research relevant for your work.

Already have an account?

Save time finding and organizing research with Mendeley

Sign up for free